Ah, the deficit. No single issue has caused as much consternation in Congress and around the country as the deficit has in recent weeks. Sure, health care reform tied up Congress for just about a full year, but now everything is getting held up because of the blasted deficit. Unemployment benefits, the coming energy bill, “the Doc fix”, Finreg, or the Wall Street Reform bill, all of these and more have been delayed, weakened, or outright allowed to expire because of the deficit concerns. It’s not enough to simply promise that the bill will be deficit-neutral as was done with the health care bill, but rather each piece of legislation in theory needs to go toward reducing the deficit. (In theory, everything should already be deficit-neutral if we’re actually following the “Pay-as-you-go” rules that Congress readopted in a joint resolution, but that’s another story.)
So what to do? Lately, the hot thing is an austerity program, as in severe spending cuts and their accompanying cutbacks in services. Seriously, they’re all the rage in Europe following the Greek economic crisis a couple of months ago, and at least it does do something for the deficit. Oh, except for one minor detail: such a package is a bad idea and exactly what we don’t need now. According to a New York Times editorial, there is a very real risk that an austerity measure would cause, in effect, the dreaded double-dip recession. Yes, that’s right; the combination of reduced spending and the still-weak credit ecosystem in this country coupled with projected decrease in corporate profits and personal incomes might just cause the nascent recovery to fall flat, leaving us to slide back into recession.
Unfortunately, we’ve already tried the alternative; massive government spending from the stimulus program has proven unconvincing at best. I’m sure you’ve seen at least one of the projects funded by the $787 billion stimulus from last year. For example, the most common ones I’ve seen are highway repairs and major road projects; nobody knows for sure exactly how many jobs were created or saved by the program, but estimates abound. In addition to the still-unproven effectiveness of the stimulus, it also costs a ton of money, and in this climate, anything that, again, isn’t fully paid for and helps the deficit situation at the same time is dead on arrival in Congress.
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